Dollar jumps as Trump tariffs loom
Mexico’s peso and Canada’s dollar got a boost after President Donald Trump pushed back the deadline for levies on goods from both countries, raising investor skepticism over one of the US leader’s signature policies.
The peso strengthened as much as 0.9 per cent against the U.S. dollar before trimming gains, while the loonie briefly erased losses. Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go into effect on April 2, versus a previous deadline of March 4.
“Trump is losing credibility,” said Marco Oviedo, a Sao Paulo-based strategist at XP Inc. “The market will probably start trading less the tariff story.”
The euro whipsawed after Trump said that tariffs on products imported from the European Union would be 25 per cent, trading just shy of the US$1.05 mark.
“By drawing out the uncertainty, firms are left with an uncertain outlook that will likely delay investment and hiring,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “A rolling one-month threat will just perpetuate this uncertainty.”
A gauge of implied volatility in the Canadian dollar over the next month has risen steadily over the last week, although it edged lower in Wednesday trading. The measure remains considerably higher than levels seen during the U.S. election.
The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has whipsawed traders since Trump’s election. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallied more than four per cent between election day and the close of 2024 as investors bet that heavy tariffs under the new Trump administration would reignite inflation and drive up US bond yields.
That rally has gone into reverse this year, with the measure down nearly two per cent so far in 2025 after capping its worst three-week stretch since September. The Bloomberg dollar gauge traded little changed on Wednesday in choppy trade following the headlines.
The US Dollar finds itself in a precarious position. Some analysts are even forecasting a total crash over a short term slump. Bitcoin prices, as a result, have become more capricious than ever. In this article, we discuss the future of the dollar and its impact on Bitcoin.
The US dollar is on the retreat, slumping against global currencies like the Euro and British Pound. With payroll reports due and almost certain cuts to interest rates, the future seems volatile. All this has had a huge impact on Bitcoin, which has seen crashing lows and quick breakouts over the past few months. In this article, we discuss how the weak dollar is impacting Bitcoin prices.
There was some bounce back from the dollar in the midweek sessions. The EUR/USD pair had some uptake, as the Federal Reserve began a policy easing cycle. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts is still looming and attracting speculation.
Part of this was down to data from the JOLTS job openings report. This produces data on job openings, hires and other employment statistics. It showed that job openings in the US have fallen to their lowest levels since January 2021. This shows a cooling in the labour market. Open positions fell to 7.67 million in July, down from 7.91 million in June. However, the real statistics were that the figure was revised down from the initial estimate, which was 8.19 million.
How Will a Weak Dollar Impact Cryptocurrencies
The correlation between the strength of the US dollar and cryptocurrencies is, like crypto itself, a temperamental one. Many are waiting for interest rates to be cut in the hope that this will spur people onto riskier asset classes, such as Bitcoin. However, the strength of the dollar and the price of crypto don’t always match up.
Rewind to 2002 and in September of that month, historically a gloomy month for crypto, the dollar was in a very different position. It was riding high against a basket of other global currencies. This included the JPY, EUR and GBP. However, this strength was impacting Bitcoin, pushing it into a downward spiral. In that month, almost 60% was wiped from the year-to-date value of Bitcoin according to Marketwatch. That would signal that a strong dollar tends to push cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin downward. However, the price of Bitcoin today against a weak dollar shows that plenty of alternate factors are at play that are keeping the value of the currency down.
Some of this can be attributed to the fact that there have been two major events related to Bitcoin in the past year, and investors are still hoping to see how they will play out. These were the Bitcoin halving event and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin halving occurs once every four years. It is a way for Bitcoin to guard against inflation. When it happens, Bitcoin miners see the reward for mining halved. This generally reduces the amount of Bitcoin being created. Historically, this has led to price increases at the three-month and the sixth-month mark. As it happened in April, these increases should be due for the end of September and the start of October.
However, investors are questioning if it will happen this year. With miner profitability at the lowest it has ever been, these lows could spark a mass sell-off. The 1.8 million Bitcoin held by miners has remained static over the last two months.
Bitcoin ETFs are the second factor. Introduced in January of this year, initially, they had proven extremely successful, being a way for people to invest in Bitcoin with the added stability of doing so through an exchange-traded fund. At the end of August, over four days, they recorded $455 million of inflows, which were quickly followed by $480 million in net outflows. Of course, all this could related to worries about the US economy.
The Weak US Dollar on the Global Market
A weak US dollar has several implications, not just for cryptocurrencies but for the broader global economy. The biggest implication for people at home is that imports become more expensive, and any goods not produced in the US will rise in price.
This means it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates mean better yields for investors and will attract foreign investment. However, it also encourages people to save money. When the economy needs a boost, low rates are better so people are encouraged to spend.
This spending also includes using money to purchase more risky assets, of which Bitcoin is one. Thus, a cut to interest rates is expected to strengthen the appeal of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
At the moment, it seems like many people are in a holding position. Bitcoin is remaining fairly static as people wait to see which way the US economy will go. However, if it proves promising and you buy now, you could see Bitcoin even enter a bull run as the economy rebounds over the next few months.
